ScenarioThinking - Recent changes [en]

Spiral of Destruction

2010-09-05T16:27:31Z

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	City centers that once housed shopping malls, corporate offices, upscale apartments, restaurants and cafes now housed run-down apartment buildings, and a thriving alcohol and an adult entertainment industry. People were looking for artificial ways to escape the thorns of reality.		City centers that once housed shopping malls, corporate offices, upscale apartments, restaurants and cafes now housed run-down apartment buildings, and a thriving alcohol and an adult entertainment industry. People were looking for artificial ways to escape the thorns of reality.

-	A few cities were able to protect themselves from this spiral of destruction, as a minority of still wealthy people paid (and fed) guards to secure the citadel they had built to stay away from the view of misery. Few ~~priviledged~~ could therefore enjoy "peace" and high living standards in this secured artificial environment.	+	A few cities were able to protect themselves from this spiral of destruction, as a minority of still wealthy people paid (and fed) guards to secure the citadel they had built to stay away from the view of misery. Few privileged could therefore enjoy "peace" and high living standards in this secured artificial environment.

	An overburdened, barely functional legal system did little to maintain the peace. Mankind returned to his natural state, selfish. In wise words of Thomas Hobbes, without a proper functioning government, life is "solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short."		An overburdened, barely functional legal system did little to maintain the peace. Mankind returned to his natural state, selfish. In wise words of Thomas Hobbes, without a proper functioning government, life is "solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short."

- Obstacles in adopting tablets

2010-09-05T14:54:14Z

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-	Initial obstacles in Tablet adoption are price and adherence to the status quo of the standard educational system. Schools have not been physically designed with technology in mind (Prensky, 2006) For schools and other institutions which have piloted the use of Tablets in the classroom, factors such as technical difficulties and resistance to change come into play. ~~xxx proposes a~~ five-step framework for adoption of any technology in the classroom: Familiarization, Utilization, Integration, Reorientation, and Evolution. Obstacles may occur at any point in this life-cycle, and may incorporate internal (personal attitude, beliefs, demographics), as well as external (availability of technical personnel and support) factors (Rogers, 2000).	+	Initial obstacles in Tablet adoption are price and adherence to the status quo of the standard educational system. Schools have not been physically designed with technology in mind (Prensky, 2006) For schools and other institutions which have piloted the use of Tablets in the classroom, factors such as technical difficulties and resistance to change come into play. A five-step framework for adoption of any technology in the classroom has been proposed by education technology researchers: Familiarization, Utilization, Integration, Reorientation, and Evolution. Obstacles may occur at any point in this life-cycle, and may incorporate internal (personal attitude, beliefs, demographics), as well as external (availability of technical personnel and support) factors (Rogers, 2000).

	References: <br>		References: <br>

Teacher, leave them kids alone

2010-09-05T14:44:57Z

Overview:

New page

==Overview==
We have dubbed our last scenario, Teacher, Leave Them Kids Alone. In this world, we find that technology has significantly changed the way that children learn. Governments are no longer the primary drivers of the education system, and students themselves lead the learning process. Learning content and curricula is driven largely by the student, with input and guidance from mentors and other facilitators. As in the Tailored Learning scenario, the role of the private sector has increased, but its participation takes the form of apprenticeships and similar vehicles to engage students.

==2010-2015==
The divide between what kids experience in the classroom and life outside the classroom continued to decrease the level of engagement and schools became viewed as seriously out of touch with the world they were preparing students for. Increased broadband penetration, Web2.0, and mobile technology began to enable a shift in learning. Teachers began incorporating the internet as an integral part of classroom curricula. There was a growing recognition that the authority figures in kids’ lives: teachers, parents, mentors, etc, were no longer the main source of information and learning. They had been replaced by the Internet – which had evolved into students’ main source of learning.

<br>
At the same time, corporations began to take an interest in the education market due to a lack of talent. Global competitiveness also led governments to seek input from corporations on how to improve the educational system. In addition, recognizing that that advertising was no longer effective for kids and young adults, corporations begin to penetrate deeper into education. They sponsored large scale pilot education technology deployments in school systems. Thanks to the success of these programs and the continuing decline in tablet prices, nearly 100% of schools were equipped with tablet computers by 2015.

<br>
However, even deeper shifts were underway. As young people raised in a world of increasing complexity, students begin to noticeably outpace their teachers by secondary school. Despite the introduction of technology into schools, students became increasingly disengaged and distracted by learning opportunities outside the classroom.

==2015-2020==
The financial crisis and environmental catastrophes of 2010 were only the tip of the iceberg signalling irreversible imbalances and long term fundamental economic issues in the West. Over the past decade, Government budgets in the West have rapidly declined due to demographic shifts, challenges brought upon by climate change, and the curse of massive individual and government debt. Under these pressures, the EU recognized that while education was in crisis, its priorities were more basic. Present day concerns such as health care, infrastructure, social stability began to trump education in priority. Governments slashed school budgets. Facing massive budget reductions, some schools began to adopt virtual classrooms to save on labor costs. This was a short step since technology was by then deeply integrated into the classroom and teachers had long been in the role of the facilitator.

<br>
In addition, new computing paradigms enabled students at a very young age to grasp symbolic thinking and similar advanced concepts. Learning had been accelerated by a several years as a primary school child was now capable of grasping concepts only accessible at the secondary level ten years ago. In an effort to cut costs and cope with the past of change, mainstream educators begin going back to basics – looking at the fundamental question: How do children learn? Constructivist Learning Theories where students actively create their own learning experiences, and Connectivist Learning Theories, where computing and networks are integral, begin to be accepted within the mainstream.

<br>
Peer to peer learning and OER were also seen as a way to further lower costs and to cope with the pace of learning. These forms of learning engaged students to become contributors in their own educational processes. Students themselves become a driving force in WHAT they learn.
Meanwhile, companies were struggling with how to cope with the pace of technological change and began to collectively realize the value of self-directed leadership and personal passion as the main determinants for success. In addition, as companies increasingly sourced labor from networks of contracted ‘free agents’, specialization and expert knowledge become key. Spurred by the success of A-level pilot programs, companies developed new learning technologies to stimulate self-directed learning and formed networks to connect students to expert knowledge.

==2020-2025==
Something had radically shifted over the past decade… Kids’ main source of learning – not only WHAT they learn but HOW they learn it – had shifted to themselves. Students now contributed to technology for learning as well as educational content. Connected to a vast web of ‘experts’ and peers, students created their own learning materials and increasingly directed their own paths. Students were mentored and authority figures provided reference points for students. However they were encouraged to ‘find their passion’ and challenged to tackle real-world problems that authorities could not solve, at an increasingly early age.

<br>
Homeschooling was prevalent at the primary level, but at the secondary level, a variety of virtual and physical learning environments prevailed. Classrooms took a variety of different forms as kids gathered in communities of learners with common interests and increased mobility made location-based learning commonplace. Specialized apprenticeships also became commonplace, as companies courted the most motivated students at the secondary level. Students were given due recognition for their best ideas in virtual forums, much in the same way that scientists had been recognized in generations past in peer communities. Students were motivated by personal recognition within their virtual and physical communities.

<br>
There is an irony in the fact that students had become more autonomous. Perhaps it was a shift to an earlier age, where society could not afford the luxury of education – where long ‘incubation’ periods were unheard of. As a result, students were increasingly seen as ‘adults’, needing to cope with the complex realities of the world much earlier in age.

Future of Tablets in Education Main Page

2010-09-05T14:15:18Z

Undo revision 187016 by Rocksteady123 (Talk)

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Tailored Learning, Tailored Life

2010-09-05T12:22:27Z

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==Overview==
In the Tailored Learning, Tailored Life scenario we find that technology has changed significantly the way education is delivered and the way that children learn. Governments no longer control the schooling or education system, but children do not lead the learning process themselves. Their learning is highly individualised and tailored to their specific circumstances and interests. The tailored learning content is predominantly developed by parents and private tutors or mentors. We witness an increasing role of the private sector in contributing to educational content, while the government's influence and contribution is greatly reduced.

==2010-2015==

In 2010 some had predicted it but few really expected it. After a partial recovery from the great recession that started at the end of 2007 confidence indicators were showing that recovery was a reality. However, it did not last very long. Only when the government stimulus measures had run their course did the people realize that the recovery was superficial and not sustainable. That resulted in a double dip recession and led to the first depression of the 21st century. People lost their trust in institutions and government s could no longer support the economy. With a record number of bankruptcies, people had nowhere to turn to for support. By the beginning of 2012 unemployment was at levels never seen before. Due to a lack of trust in the educational system and due to financial constraints, home schooling became an increasing phenomenon. Neither governments nor the private sector could any longer support the full cost of running schools. In the wake of the European sovereign debts crisis and greatly reduced government budgets, school fees were significantly increased. While staying at home and looking for jobs, some parents took up the role of educating their children at home.<br>

By the end of 2014 the first signs of recovery had started to emerge. However, the memories of the big disappointment and distrust in the institutions were still fresh in many people’s minds. They doubted whether the “old” model could survive in this new world. They blamed, among others, the education system for failing them in their greatest hour of need. Instead of sending their children back to the traditional schools, some parents looked for alternative ways to prepare their children for the uncertain future that lay ahead. <br>

==2015-2020==

More and more teachers, who previously worked in the education sector, were offering their services as private tutors or mentors. These teachers also realized that the traditional, outdated way of teaching had changed. They started exploring and investigating alternative ways of teaching. They came across a whole range of educational content and new ways of teaching children. They increasingly started to collaborate in online communities where they shared their new findings with previous colleagues who had the same concerns. Schooling still continued in the traditional way in certain of the previous highly regarded schools. The cost however was becoming exorbitant, while technology and internet adoption remained low. Parents, concerned about the sustainability of the whole system that brought about the adverse situation wanted to have a bigger say in the quality, content and direction of the education their children received. Together with the teachers they started defining and developing customized educational plans for their children. These educational plans took on an ever increasing specialization, where children at a very young age had their education tailored to specified directions. Realizing that children preferred technological interaction, tutors focused their attention to the vast amount of educational content available in this format. This new educational environment consisted of: the mentor, the scholar and a tablet computer where the learning took place through various electronic- and other multimedia and students interacted with their peers in a virtual setting. Even their social interaction was predominantly through various social media and physical contact or interaction was limited to friendly gatherings. Children’s character development was now largely influenced by their social friendship circles and not so much through interaction with peers or colleagues in schooling. <br>

==2020-2025==

The driving motivator behind students’ increased level of performance was a sheer sense of survival and the fear of experiencing a repeat of when the system failed their parents a few years prior. As a reaction to the decreasing school enrollment numbers (as much as 20% of kids of school going age were now receiving private tutored or home schooling education), governments reacted by trying to locate the teachers and bring them back in to the old traditional schooling system. When teachers did not accept, everyone realized that the trend is irreversible. Appreciating the value of education to society, governments embraced the new system and instituted programs to support and enhance this mode of education. They promoted an environment that fostered the digital creation of educational content and offered favorable incentives and tax benefits for companies involved in developing such media. Due to the dramatic focus on specialized educational content companies operating in the various sectors of the economy took a participative role in structuring content for these specialized programs. Children’s development was largely the responsibility of parents or assigned mentors, both from an educational and personal development perspective. <br>

Impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on education spending

2010-09-05T11:01:29Z

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<h2>Description:</h2>
The current European sovereign debt crisis has placed enormous strain on many of the EU countries and has forced the respective governments to adopt stringent austerity measures. These new measures have been met with fierce opposition and even violence and civil unrest in certain EU countries. Others have realised the need to reduce Government spending and budgets have been slashed to provide reduced salaries for civil servants, reduced employment and pension benefits. Will the decreased government budgets also affect spending on education? <br>

<h2>Enablers:</h2>
1. Excessive Government borrowing during the "good years" <br>
2. Increased social and welfare benefits in most of the EU countries <br>
3. Undisciplined fiscal management by over-indebted Governments <br>
4. Great Recession of 2007 - 2009 <br>
5. Greece bail-out package <br>

<h2>Inhibitors:</h2>
1. Recovery of Global economy <br>
2. Effective use of bail-out money (to honour repayment commitments and prevent default or restructuring of debt <br>
3. Adoption of and commitment to stringent austerity measures and reduced Government budgets <br>

<h2>Paradigms:</h2>
A reduction in spending on education might be thought of as impossible, but in light of the sovereign debt crisis faced by many EU country Governments it might become necessary. Such a situation will lead people to evaluate the quality of education offered to their children and might see an increase in the cost and presence of private education (schools and tutoring). This may all lead to significant changes in how the public education sector is structured. <br>

<h2>Web Resources:</h2>
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication15887_en.pdf <br>
http://moorestephensresources.com.au/articles/352/1/European-Sovereign-Debt-Crisis/Page1.html <br>

Future of Tablets in Education Main Page

2010-09-05T10:30:49Z

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	11. [[Education cost]]		11. [[Education cost]]

-	12. [[~~Post crisis development~~ of the ~~EU economy~~]]	+	12. [[Impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on education spending]]

	13. [[Global Warming Threats]]		13. [[Global Warming Threats]]

Post crisis development of the EU economy

2010-09-05T10:22:53Z

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<h2>Description:</h2>

<h2>Enablers:</h2>

<h2>Inhibitors:</h2>

<h2>Experts:</h2>

<h2>Web Resources:</h2>

Global Warming Threats

2010-09-05T10:21:28Z

Created page with '<h2>Description</h2> The climate has been changing since the industrial revolution in the 18th and 19th century and is still continuing today. Increased carbon emissions have alr…'

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<h2>Description</h2>
The climate has been changing since the industrial revolution in the 18th and 19th century and is still continuing today. Increased carbon emissions have already caused a 1.5C increase in the average worldwide temperature and have started to change our day to day lives. In extreme global warming scenarios kids can be facing shorter class times due to sever heat/cold condition and have scarce paper supplies due to deforestation. <br>
<h2>Enablers</h2>
• % of population in poverty: currently since a lot of people are still below the poverty line government put global warming as a secondary objective<br>
• Free rider effect: burning carbons is a local however global warming is global so it is harder to make the responsible people pay and in particular for historical actions<br>
• Globalisation: people travel more so they have higher carbon emissions; developing world copy the developed world in their high carbon emission lifestyle of eg driving your kids to school when they can walk<br>

<h2>Inhibitors</h2>
• Recycling: a lot of the school and work materials are made out of recycle paper<br>
• Energy saving initiatives: many schools and publics buildings have undergone a renovation which allows them to use less electricity and so have a smaller carbon footprint.<br>
• E-book: a paperless world would help with the current deforestation problems<br>

<h2>Paradigm</h2>
Global warming is at the verge of no return so it is up to us to retard carbon emissions or there won’t be a sustainable future for the next generation. The government should set an example of how to address global warming and educate students to be its advocates. Every little helps so everyone should be involved in the preserving the planet. <br>

<h2>Experts</h2>
• Environmental experts<br>
• Biologists<br>

<h2>Timing</h2>
http://www.aip.org/history/climate/timeline.htm
<h2>Web Resources</h2>

Future of Tablets in Education Main Page

2010-09-05T10:18:56Z

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	11. [[Education cost]]		11. [[Education cost]]

-	12. [[~~Increasing company involvement in education~~]]	+	12. [[Post crisis development of the EU economy]]

-	13. [[Global Warming ~~Threads~~]]	+	13. [[Global Warming Threats]]

	14. [[ Decrease in competitiveness of EU]]		14. [[ Decrease in competitiveness of EU]]

Carbon Trading, Finances and related Economics

2010-09-04T13:28:09Z

Inhibitors::

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	==Inhibitors:==		==Inhibitors:==
-	1. The emissions trading schemes operat in different ways, and it might result in speculations between companies, cities, or countries.	+	1. The emissions trading schemes operat in different ways, and it might result in speculations between companies, cities, or countries.[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pA6FSy6EKrM]
-	2.	+
	==Paradigms:==		==Paradigms:==
	[[File:emission trading schemes.gif]][http://www.seaat.org/userfiles/image/trading-schemes.gif]		[[File:emission trading schemes.gif]][http://www.seaat.org/userfiles/image/trading-schemes.gif]
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	[https://www.theice.com/homepage.jhtml ICE]<BR>		[https://www.theice.com/homepage.jhtml ICE]<BR>
	[http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/ENVIRONMENT/EXTCARBONFINANCE/0,,menuPK:4125909~pagePK:64168427~piPK:64168435~theSitePK:4125853,00.html Carbon Finance - World Bank]<br>		[http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/ENVIRONMENT/EXTCARBONFINANCE/0,,menuPK:4125909~pagePK:64168427~piPK:64168435~theSitePK:4125853,00.html Carbon Finance - World Bank]<br>
-	[http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTCARBONFINANCE/Resources/State_and_Trends_2010_final.pdf ~~Global Carbon Market Grows to $144 billion Despite~~	+	Global Carbon Market Grows to $144 billion Despite
-	~~Financial and Economic Turmoil~~]	+	Financial and Economic Turmoil[http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTCARBONFINANCE/Resources/State_and_Trends_2010_final.pdf]

Future of the City Centre 2025

2010-09-04T13:07:09Z

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	==Drafts==		==Drafts==
-

	[[Systems Map]]		[[Systems Map]]

	[[Matrix]]		[[Matrix]]
		+
		+	[[Scenario Axis]]

	==Systems Diagram==		==Systems Diagram==
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	[[Scenario Axis Matrix ]]		[[Scenario Axis Matrix ]]
-
-	~~==Timelines==~~
-
-	~~[[Scenario Axis]]~~

	=Driving Forces=		=Driving Forces=

Carbon Trading, Finances and related Economics

2010-09-04T12:58:52Z

Web Resources::

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	[http://www.etg.uk.com/ UK Emissions Trading Group]<br>		[http://www.etg.uk.com/ UK Emissions Trading Group]<br>
	[https://www.theice.com/homepage.jhtml ICE]<BR>		[https://www.theice.com/homepage.jhtml ICE]<BR>
-	[http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/ENVIRONMENT/EXTCARBONFINANCE/0,,menuPK:4125909~pagePK:64168427~piPK:64168435~theSitePK:4125853,00.html Carbon Finance - World Bank]	+	[http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/ENVIRONMENT/EXTCARBONFINANCE/0,,menuPK:4125909~pagePK:64168427~piPK:64168435~theSitePK:4125853,00.html Carbon Finance - World Bank]<br>
	[http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTCARBONFINANCE/Resources/State_and_Trends_2010_final.pdf Global Carbon Market Grows to $144 billion Despite		[http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTCARBONFINANCE/Resources/State_and_Trends_2010_final.pdf Global Carbon Market Grows to $144 billion Despite
	Financial and Economic Turmoil]		Financial and Economic Turmoil]

File:Scenarioaxis2.jpg

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uploaded "[[File:Scenarioaxis2.jpg]]"

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Scenario Axis Matrix

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Future of the City Centre 2025

2010-09-04T12:29:23Z

Scenario Axis:

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	[[Emotions Chart]]		[[Emotions Chart]]
		+
		+	== Scenario Axis ==
		+
		+	[[Scenario Axis Matrix ]]

	==Timelines==		==Timelines==

Business as Usual

2010-09-04T12:15:48Z

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-	~~'''~~2010-2015~~'''~~	+	==2010-2015==

	The fiscal stimulus package was never heralded as the savior of the world financial problem. However, nobody expected the wound would take so long to heal once the band-aid of government support was removed. The high levels of government debt that burdened growth in Europe, especially Greece; Spain, and Ireland, kept investors on the sidelines. Market movements during the bleak days of 2011 were poignant, yet participation was low as the number of shares traded on a daily basis reached record lows.		The fiscal stimulus package was never heralded as the savior of the world financial problem. However, nobody expected the wound would take so long to heal once the band-aid of government support was removed. The high levels of government debt that burdened growth in Europe, especially Greece; Spain, and Ireland, kept investors on the sidelines. Market movements during the bleak days of 2011 were poignant, yet participation was low as the number of shares traded on a daily basis reached record lows.
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	[[File:traffic.jpg]]		[[File:traffic.jpg]]

-	~~'''~~2015-2020~~'''~~	+	==2015-2020==

	New years eve 2014 was a day of celebration. Economists, central bankers, and corporations had all predicted 2015 was going to be a year of strong economic growth. People were celebrating the end of the long recession and had trust that another boom similar to the 90’s was right around the corner. Yet, the celebration was not the beginning of growth, the economy maintain a steady course of 1% growth as the economic engine continued to sputter.		New years eve 2014 was a day of celebration. Economists, central bankers, and corporations had all predicted 2015 was going to be a year of strong economic growth. People were celebrating the end of the long recession and had trust that another boom similar to the 90’s was right around the corner. Yet, the celebration was not the beginning of growth, the economy maintain a steady course of 1% growth as the economic engine continued to sputter.
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	[[File:pollution.jpg]]		[[File:pollution.jpg]]

-	~~'''~~2020-2025~~'''~~	+	==2020-2025==

	High education systems around the globe begin to consolidate as demand for education falls. The institutions that once taught young people how to explore the expanses of space and the mysteries of science were now operating at levels not seen since the early 90’s. The digital age allowed many young people to gain an education from open source material, but the were not challenged to think deeply about subjects and the economic spark of innovation was beginning to dim.		High education systems around the globe begin to consolidate as demand for education falls. The institutions that once taught young people how to explore the expanses of space and the mysteries of science were now operating at levels not seen since the early 90’s. The digital age allowed many young people to gain an education from open source material, but the were not challenged to think deeply about subjects and the economic spark of innovation was beginning to dim.

Spiral of Destruction

2010-09-04T12:14:45Z

2020-2025:

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-	~~'''~~2010-2015~~'''~~	+	==2010-2015==

	After the asset price collapse of 2007, the global economic outlook was bleak. The start of a new decade is usually a time for excitement and hope. Yet, in 2010 the aroma in the air was one of fear and uncertainty. People were questioning the effectiveness of government stimulus packages, “would they really work?” was the question of the day. Should the stimulus package not provide the promised result, citizens around the globe were fearing en economic meltdown of catastrophic proportions. The great depression of the twentieth century would be renamed the other depression.		After the asset price collapse of 2007, the global economic outlook was bleak. The start of a new decade is usually a time for excitement and hope. Yet, in 2010 the aroma in the air was one of fear and uncertainty. People were questioning the effectiveness of government stimulus packages, “would they really work?” was the question of the day. Should the stimulus package not provide the promised result, citizens around the globe were fearing en economic meltdown of catastrophic proportions. The great depression of the twentieth century would be renamed the other depression.
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	[[File:refugee.jpg]]		[[File:refugee.jpg]]

-	~~'''~~2015-2020~~'''~~	+	==2015-2020==

	The largest economy in the world, the United States of America, continued its struggles in 2016. The fed still maintained 0% interest rates, but the economy didn’t respond. Large budget deficits due to rising health care costs and social security spending meant the US continued to borrow large sums of money from China and India to balance its budget. The East to West movement of capital that began early in the century maintained its course. The Chinese tried to put pressure on the US government to balance its budget by refusing to buy t-bills, but fear of US government default forced the Chinese to continued purchasing government debt.		The largest economy in the world, the United States of America, continued its struggles in 2016. The fed still maintained 0% interest rates, but the economy didn’t respond. Large budget deficits due to rising health care costs and social security spending meant the US continued to borrow large sums of money from China and India to balance its budget. The East to West movement of capital that began early in the century maintained its course. The Chinese tried to put pressure on the US government to balance its budget by refusing to buy t-bills, but fear of US government default forced the Chinese to continued purchasing government debt.
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	[[File:riot.jpg]]		[[File:riot.jpg]]

-	~~'''~~2020-2025~~'''~~	+	==2020-2025==

	2020 became the year the tipping point was reached. Students defaulting on student loans, falling home values, high unemployment, and an ever widening budget deficit cause the United States to default on its loans. World stock markets crashed the following day and March 12, 2020 became a day of infamy around the world.		2020 became the year the tipping point was reached. Students defaulting on student loans, falling home values, high unemployment, and an ever widening budget deficit cause the United States to default on its loans. World stock markets crashed the following day and March 12, 2020 became a day of infamy around the world.
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	Mother Nature’s call to change fell on deaf ears and she didn’t stop unleashing her fury. The ice caps continued to melt, earthquakes occurred more refrequently, and violent storms increased. The number of climate refugees increased from 50 million to 130 million by 2025. With the closing of borders and increased security measure those affected by disaster were left without help and suffered unspeakable pain. Migration of displaced citizen occurred within country not across borders. Refugees moved to city centers and joined the refugee camps. Soup kitchens were strained for resources and food and water rationing was instigated. This meant many went to bed hungry. This hunger quickly turned to hunger as children went to bed hungry. Yet, little could be done to help. Unemployment reached 35% globally and everyone was looking for a handout.		Mother Nature’s call to change fell on deaf ears and she didn’t stop unleashing her fury. The ice caps continued to melt, earthquakes occurred more refrequently, and violent storms increased. The number of climate refugees increased from 50 million to 130 million by 2025. With the closing of borders and increased security measure those affected by disaster were left without help and suffered unspeakable pain. Migration of displaced citizen occurred within country not across borders. Refugees moved to city centers and joined the refugee camps. Soup kitchens were strained for resources and food and water rationing was instigated. This meant many went to bed hungry. This hunger quickly turned to hunger as children went to bed hungry. Yet, little could be done to help. Unemployment reached 35% globally and everyone was looking for a handout.

-	Life in ~~the~~ cities got worse. Slums over ran what once used to be a vibrant city filled with life, laughter and joy. Now it reeked of pain and suffering. Cities that were not affected or destroyed by war or packed with climate refugees tried to return local economies to agriculture. Suburban open spaces were converted to farmland. Yet, yields were low as fertilizer and other resources were not available.	+	Life in most cities got worse. Slums over ran what once used to be a vibrant city filled with life, laughter and joy. Now it reeked of pain and suffering. Cities that were not affected or destroyed by war or packed with climate refugees tried to return local economies to agriculture. Suburban open spaces were converted to farmland. Yet, yields were low as fertilizer and other resources were not available.
	City centers that once housed shopping malls, corporate offices, upscale apartments, restaurants and cafes now housed run-down apartment buildings, and a thriving alcohol and an adult entertainment industry. People were looking for artificial ways to escape the thorns of reality.		City centers that once housed shopping malls, corporate offices, upscale apartments, restaurants and cafes now housed run-down apartment buildings, and a thriving alcohol and an adult entertainment industry. People were looking for artificial ways to escape the thorns of reality.
		+
		+	A few cities were able to protect themselves from this spiral of destruction, as a minority of still wealthy people paid (and fed) guards to secure the citadel they had built to stay away from the view of misery. Few priviledged could therefore enjoy "peace" and high living standards in this secured artificial environment.

	An overburdened, barely functional legal system did little to maintain the peace. Mankind returned to his natural state, selfish. In wise words of Thomas Hobbes, without a proper functioning government, life is "solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short."		An overburdened, barely functional legal system did little to maintain the peace. Mankind returned to his natural state, selfish. In wise words of Thomas Hobbes, without a proper functioning government, life is "solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short."

Empowerment

2010-09-04T12:01:15Z

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-	~~'''~~2010-2015~~'''~~	+	==2010-2015==

	The great recession became a major turning point for the world’s corporations. The end of fiscal irresponsibility came to an end as social responsibility became the benchmark for success. The system of profit chasing and cut throat business deals, was slowly giving way to global cooperation and quality earnings. The new holistic management style took into account all stakeholders not merely a single company’s shareholders. Yet, no one anticipated that planet earth would become a stakeholder. Mother Earth’s seat in the board room began to appear in 2013, but wouldn’t became a ubiquitous sight for another decade.		The great recession became a major turning point for the world’s corporations. The end of fiscal irresponsibility came to an end as social responsibility became the benchmark for success. The system of profit chasing and cut throat business deals, was slowly giving way to global cooperation and quality earnings. The new holistic management style took into account all stakeholders not merely a single company’s shareholders. Yet, no one anticipated that planet earth would become a stakeholder. Mother Earth’s seat in the board room began to appear in 2013, but wouldn’t became a ubiquitous sight for another decade.
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	Consumers began to buy green technologies fuelling technological advances in the industry and bringing economies of scale to the sector reducing the cost for individuals to go green. Markets were geared toward sustainable growth and industry was focused on producing and recycling quality products.		Consumers began to buy green technologies fuelling technological advances in the industry and bringing economies of scale to the sector reducing the cost for individuals to go green. Markets were geared toward sustainable growth and industry was focused on producing and recycling quality products.
-	City centers returned as the heart beat of both economic and social activities. Mass transit ~~replaced~~ the ~~automobile~~, ~~walking~~ to work became a symbol of living the green lifestyle, and high density residential buildings reduced a locations carbon foot-print. The increased flow of population migration to cities attracted more companies to the city centre. Office space that was once vacated during the crisis of 2008 was once again full of workers.	+	City centers returned as the heart beat of both economic and social activities. Significant public investments were made in urban development to anticipate needs of a growing urban population. Mass transit started to become really attractive as infrstructures had been developed and modernized to address population mobility needs in terms of network coverage and efficiency (reducing commuting time). Besides, more and more people prefered public transportation for economical reasons as they would save on the costs related to the purchase, use and maintenance of a car. Walking to work also became a symbol of living the green lifestyle, and high density residential buildings reduced a locations carbon foot-print. The increased flow of population migration to cities attracted more companies to the city centre. Office space that was once vacated during the crisis of 2008 was once again full of workers.

	2014 was a windfall year for government tax receipts and in response governments spent large sums of money on green space and green technologies. Solar power became common on rooftops, walking paths lined the city, and organic food markets began to dot the downtown shopping scene.		2014 was a windfall year for government tax receipts and in response governments spent large sums of money on green space and green technologies. Solar power became common on rooftops, walking paths lined the city, and organic food markets began to dot the downtown shopping scene.
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	[[File:consumer.jpg]]		[[File:consumer.jpg]]

-	~~'''~~2015-2020~~'''~~	+	==2015-2020==

	By 2015 financial markets surpassed the historic levels of 2007 and confidence around the globe continued to improve. The real winners on Wall Street were green technology firms. Not only did Wall Street reward companies operating in the green space, government provided tax incentives to players in the industry. Green companies producing carbon-neutral, recyclable, renewable energy-based products qualified for the tax breaks.		By 2015 financial markets surpassed the historic levels of 2007 and confidence around the globe continued to improve. The real winners on Wall Street were green technology firms. Not only did Wall Street reward companies operating in the green space, government provided tax incentives to players in the industry. Green companies producing carbon-neutral, recyclable, renewable energy-based products qualified for the tax breaks.
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	[[File:c2c.jpg]]		[[File:c2c.jpg]]

-	~~'''~~2020-2025~~'''~~	+	==2020-2025==

	By 2020, the cradle to cradle philosophy became a requirement for all manufacturing businesses. The requirement was not issued by governments or corporate boards, the mandate came from consumers. Consumers bought products that would easily return to their core elements. The drive to cradle to cradle manufacturing was a welcomed by Mother Nature. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere declined steadily from 2020-2025, as did the amount of pollution released in the water supplies. The total amount of clean, fresh water increased reducing the number of deaths due to dehydration.		By 2020, the cradle to cradle philosophy became a requirement for all manufacturing businesses. The requirement was not issued by governments or corporate boards, the mandate came from consumers. Consumers bought products that would easily return to their core elements. The drive to cradle to cradle manufacturing was a welcomed by Mother Nature. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere declined steadily from 2020-2025, as did the amount of pollution released in the water supplies. The total amount of clean, fresh water increased reducing the number of deaths due to dehydration.

-	Natural disaster continued declining and the number of climate refugees reached the lowest level since the early 90’s. Climate change was easing and the earth and its inhabitants were happy. However, not all was blissful. The world still relied heavily on fossil fuels for energy production. 65% of all energy production came from fossil fuels. The number was expected to decline in the coming years as biomass plants and nuclear plants were being built and would soon join the grid.	+	Natural disaster continued declining and the number of climate refugees reached the lowest level since the early 90’s. Climate change was easing and the earth and its inhabitants were happy. However, not all was blissful. The world still relied heavily on fossil fuels for energy production. 70% of all energy production came from fossil fuels. The number was expected to decline in the coming years as biomass plants and nuclear plants were being built and would soon join the grid.

-	City centers were lively, healthy, green places to live and work. The social scene was vibrant and vacancies were difficult to find. The world which looked so dark and dreary in 2010, had become bright green by 2025.	+	City centers were lively, healthy, green places to live and work. The social scene was vibrant and vacancies were difficult to find. The world which looked so dark and dreary in 2010, had become bright green by 2025.

	[[File:city1.jpg]]		[[File:city1.jpg]]

Green lifestyle

2010-09-04T11:38:52Z

Inhibitors:

New page

Buying green products has been a slow-growing trend over the last decade. Reflecting the public concern about environmental issues and sustainability, the "green" market remains today an marginal market for those that have strong convictions and those that just surf over the wave of looking environment-friendly.

== Enablers==
- government fiscal incentives for companies producing green and for people to buy green (ex: tax reduction for installation of solar panels) <br>
- product innovation<br>
- growing public awareness and concern for environment degradation and future lack of fossil fuel supply <br>
- green marketing: opportunity for innovation, differentiation and attractiveness<br>
- Societal trend (fashion): buying green and being green as the new hype standard <br>
- good economy enabling people to invest and spend more for green products<br>
- affordability of green products<br>
- clearer literacy of green labels <br>

== Inhibitors ==
- confusion of consumers with the green-literacy (too many labels, they don't know what they buy)<br>
- over-marketing about green products present those more as commercial products than as environment-friendly/sustainable products(image issue)<br>
- recession and decrease in purchasing power push consumers to buy cheaper products<br>
- lack of supply/ offer of green products (ex: automobile) <br>
- affordability of green products<br>

Future of the City Centre 2025

2010-09-04T11:15:22Z

Societal Driving Forces:

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	[[Increased need for young and educated immigration ]]		[[Increased need for young and educated immigration ]]
		+
		+	[[Green lifestyle]]

	====Economic Driving Forces====		====Economic Driving Forces====
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	[[How does the political system in Western countries influence city development?]] (Louis)		[[How does the political system in Western countries influence city development?]] (Louis)
-
-	~~=Recommended Reading=~~

Future of mobility (The Netherlands)

2010-09-04T11:02:59Z

Created page with 'http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/RSM_MBA_2010_Scenarios#Future_of_Mobility_in_Netherlands_2030'

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http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/RSM_MBA_2010_Scenarios#Future_of_Mobility_in_Netherlands_2030

Future of climate change negotiation

2010-09-04T11:02:21Z

Created page with 'http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/RSM_MBA_2010_Scenarios#Future_of_Climate_Change_Negotiations_in_2020'

New page

http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/RSM_MBA_2010_Scenarios#Future_of_Climate_Change_Negotiations_in_2020

Future of the City Centre 2025

2010-09-04T11:01:25Z

Technological Driving Forces:

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	[[Public participation]]		[[Public participation]]
		+
		+	[[Future of climate change negotiation]]

	====Environmental Driving Forces====		====Environmental Driving Forces====
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	[[Floating House]]<BR>		[[Floating House]]<BR>
		+
		+	[[Future of mobility (The Netherlands)]]

	[[Future of innovation]]		[[Future of innovation]]

Carbon Trading, Finances and related Economics

2010-09-04T11:00:36Z

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	[http://www.etg.uk.com/ UK Emissions Trading Group]<br>		[http://www.etg.uk.com/ UK Emissions Trading Group]<br>
	[https://www.theice.com/homepage.jhtml ICE]<BR>		[https://www.theice.com/homepage.jhtml ICE]<BR>
		+	[http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/TOPICS/ENVIRONMENT/EXTCARBONFINANCE/0,,menuPK:4125909~pagePK:64168427~piPK:64168435~theSitePK:4125853,00.html Carbon Finance - World Bank]
		+	[http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTCARBONFINANCE/Resources/State_and_Trends_2010_final.pdf Global Carbon Market Grows to $144 billion Despite
		+	Financial and Economic Turmoil]

Future of the City Centre 2025

2010-09-04T11:00:32Z

Environmental Driving Forces:

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Carbon Trading, Finances and related Economics

2010-09-04T10:57:51Z

Enablers::

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	1. Emissions trading lowers the cost to participants and gives business flexibility choose the form of compliance. <br>		1. Emissions trading lowers the cost to participants and gives business flexibility choose the form of compliance. <br>
	2. If Governments, or companies, want to reduce emissions, then providing an economic incentive improves compliance and benefits the environment.<br>		2. If Governments, or companies, want to reduce emissions, then providing an economic incentive improves compliance and benefits the environment.<br>
-	3.	+	3. The market for the purchase of carbon has grown exponentially since its conception in 1996 according to the data were presented in World Bank.<br>

	==Inhibitors:==		==Inhibitors:==

Future of innovation

2010-09-04T10:57:32Z

Created page with 'http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Future_of_Innovation_Main_Page'

New page

http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Future_of_Innovation_Main_Page

Future of the City Centre 2025

2010-09-04T10:57:17Z

Technological Driving Forces:

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	[[Floating House]]<BR>		[[Floating House]]<BR>
		+
		+	[[Future of innovation]]

	=Research Questions=		=Research Questions=

Green clusters

2010-09-04T10:53:58Z

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-	2010-2015	+	==2010-2015==

	The crash of 2008 ended the construction bonanza that began at the turn of the century. Projects were still being completed in 2010 and new ones were starting, but the pace at which building was slowed significantly. Layoffs in the construction industry were expected to remain as the industry returned to a more historical normal for new building permits. While the industry was suffering with restructuring, no one noticed the restructuring was really becoming a reawaking. The industry took hold of the green movement with vengeance. LEED certification, green space, and renewable energy became the status quo for buildings in 2013.		The crash of 2008 ended the construction bonanza that began at the turn of the century. Projects were still being completed in 2010 and new ones were starting, but the pace at which building was slowed significantly. Layoffs in the construction industry were expected to remain as the industry returned to a more historical normal for new building permits. While the industry was suffering with restructuring, no one noticed the restructuring was really becoming a reawaking. The industry took hold of the green movement with vengeance. LEED certification, green space, and renewable energy became the status quo for buildings in 2013.
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	[[File:city.jpg]]		[[File:city.jpg]]

-	2015-2020	+	==2015-2020==

	Migration of city dwellers to the country caused a demand for an increase in bandwidth as jobs were being outsourced from downtown office buildings to rural areas. Yet, even with an increase in ICT no one imaged that in 2017 cloud computing would become a reality. The cloud finally became essential for business to reduce costs and stay competitive. The cloud allowed for more workers to have a remote office and corporate headquarters will slowly becoming a deserted island.		Migration of city dwellers to the country caused a demand for an increase in bandwidth as jobs were being outsourced from downtown office buildings to rural areas. Yet, even with an increase in ICT no one imaged that in 2017 cloud computing would become a reality. The cloud finally became essential for business to reduce costs and stay competitive. The cloud allowed for more workers to have a remote office and corporate headquarters will slowly becoming a deserted island.
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	The city center remained the home of government functions and the residence of corporate headquarters. However, the hustle and bustle of the city was reduced significantly be the migration of work from the city to the suburbs.		The city center remained the home of government functions and the residence of corporate headquarters. However, the hustle and bustle of the city was reduced significantly be the migration of work from the city to the suburbs.

-	Natural disaster still occurred during but the frequency was beginning to slow. The CO2 in the atmosphere, though still above the threshold of ~~_____~~ ppm had come down by 50 ppm since 2015. Refugees were still seen in many major urban areas, but some had repatriated.	+	Natural disaster still occurred during but the frequency was beginning to slow. The CO2 in the atmosphere, though still above the threshold of 390 ppm had come down by 375 ppm since 2015. Refugees were still seen in many major urban areas, but some had repatriated.

	The economy experience stable growth as investment in green technology and green building provided a heat beat for financial markets. Investors returned from the sidelines to spur growth in the technology sector.		The economy experience stable growth as investment in green technology and green building provided a heat beat for financial markets. Investors returned from the sidelines to spur growth in the technology sector.
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	[[File:farm.jpg]]		[[File:farm.jpg]]

-	2020-2025	+	==2020-2025==

	The economy gain more traction as the rural building bonanza continued. Energy efficient consumer products were in high demand and green technology fueled economic growth. Solar power created demand for panels, batteries, and converts. Power utilities were investing heavily in wind energy, nuclear power, and biomass power plants. The race to zero emissions was powering an era of economic growth not seen for two decades. Markets were rising, jobs were plentiful, and the outlook was bright.		The economy gain more traction as the rural building bonanza continued. Energy efficient consumer products were in high demand and green technology fueled economic growth. Solar power created demand for panels, batteries, and converts. Power utilities were investing heavily in wind energy, nuclear power, and biomass power plants. The race to zero emissions was powering an era of economic growth not seen for two decades. Markets were rising, jobs were plentiful, and the outlook was bright.

Carbon Trading, Finances and related Economics

2010-09-04T10:51:16Z

Enablers::

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	==Enablers:==		==Enablers:==
-	1. Emissions trading ~~can significantly reduce~~ the cost of ~~improving air quality~~.<br>	+	1. Emissions trading lowers the cost to participants and gives business flexibility choose the form of compliance. <br>
	2. If Governments, or companies, want to reduce emissions, then providing an economic incentive improves compliance and benefits the environment.<br>		2. If Governments, or companies, want to reduce emissions, then providing an economic incentive improves compliance and benefits the environment.<br>
-	3. ~~Emissions trading lowers the cost to participants and gives business flexibility choose the form of compliance. <br>~~	+	3.
		+
	==Inhibitors:==		==Inhibitors:==
	1. The emissions trading schemes operat in different ways, and it might result in speculations between companies, cities, or countries.		1. The emissions trading schemes operat in different ways, and it might result in speculations between companies, cities, or countries.
	2.		2.
	==Paradigms:==		==Paradigms:==
-	[[File:emission trading schemes.gif]]	+	[[File:emission trading schemes.gif]][http://www.seaat.org/userfiles/image/trading-schemes.gif]

	==Web Resources:==		==Web Resources:==

File:Emission trading schemes.gif

2010-09-04T10:49:31Z

uploaded "[[File:Emission trading schemes.gif]]"

New page

Carbon Trading, Finances and related Economics

2010-09-04T10:49:18Z

Paradigms::

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	2.		2.
	==Paradigms:==		==Paradigms:==
-	[[File:emission trading schemes.~~jpg~~]]	+	[[File:emission trading schemes.gif]]

	==Web Resources:==		==Web Resources:==